Séance Séminaire

Séminaire de Probabilités et Statistique

Analyzing the dynamics of extreme events with marked point processes

The aim is to merge probabilistic methods for marked point processes, extreme events, and spatial graphs in order to propose a new framework for better understanding spatial and temporal interactions between different types of extreme events in the climate system. Each extreme event (whether temperature, precipitation, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, etc.) for a specific climate variable and region will be represented by a dot indicating the time of its occurrence, as well as by one or more markers describing key characteristics of the episode, such as maximum, spatial extent, duration, accumulation, etc. First- and second-order statistical characteristics and second order statistical features of point processes, such as the intensity function and various pair and mark correlation functions, will be adapted to study the multiscale structures of the set of marked points. We also propose an approach that combines Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDE) to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of temperature anomalies on a global scale. Using ERA5 data from the Copernicus Data Store, we examine temperature extremes worldwide.

Séminaire en salle 109, également retransmis sur zoom : https://umontpellier-fr.zoom.us/j/7156708132